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He wanted to remove any uncertainty on whether or not he was part of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) majority, which was leaning more in the camp of slowing down to see what the lagged effects of Fed tightening has had on the economy, not to overtighten and cause a dramatic recession. You've seen an average increase of a half a percent on a month-over-month basis over the last three, six and 12 months, which is a 6% annualized rate and nowhere close to the Fed's 2% target. Jeff Schulze: That is very true today. So, given the fact that earnings have just started to move down, this is likely the next shoe to drop and likely to be priced in the markets as we move through the next couple of quarters. James is a Business Development Manager and provides sales, marketing and territory (UK & Europe) management for ClearBridge's investment strategies. Clearbridge anatomy of a recession dashboard. Whether it continues at that level for the second quarter remains to be seen, " he said. The Dashboard has recently turned a cautionary yellow from expansionary green, signaling a heightened probability of recession. But again, I'm expecting a kind of a choppy, a bumpy trading range in the markets in 2023 until visibility is restored on: a) if we have a recession; but b) how deep of a recession is that and what does that mean for the earnings picture? While many economic indicators continue to show strength, the current environment likely represents peak economic and earnings growth as discussed previously. Anatomy of a Recession: Why a US Recession is Unlikely Near Term. Genres: Description: Global perspectives and local insights from our investment teams. And it shouldn't be a surprise.

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5% vs. consensus of 8. So, you're going to see this bifurcated data release, I think, really up until the second quarter of next year, and it's going to create an environment where we're going to have these pockets of strength in the markets and then pockets of weakness until the ultimate path is revealed on the US economy. ClearBridge Investments – Anatomy of a Recession. Host: Thank you, Jeff, for your terrific insight as we navigate the markets. Still very healthy print at 263, 000 jobs created. Topic: This is going to be a really interesting presentation that will take today's headlines and put them into perspective by providing historical data and trends to give us a better idea of where we are heading. Markets reacted positively initially and then it seemed to go in the other direction.

So when we do see this choppiness, definitely want to try to take advantage of it. So, goods deflation is happening, and that's helping to normalise the inflation picture. A look at the United States economy with a focus on labor, home sales and corporate profits with Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments. It's a key to the health of this expansion and the longevity of it. AOR Update: Mid-Cycle Transition no Reason to Sell. But if you had bought the day you hit bear market, yes, you have some initial weakness. Usually that means it's a pretty good entry point for those investors that are willing to embrace the volatility and they have a long-term focus. Jeff Schulze: Unfortunately, when the dashboard turns red, usually an object in motion stays in motion. Current reflects the 2022 Peak-Trough from market close on January 3 to September 30, 2022. So it's one of, was one of four signals that weren't red yet. Even though these can only be known with the benefit of hindsight, a double-dip recession is clearly not on the horizon. 1 So counter-trend rallies can be quite long and quite robust as far as market price action.

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If you annualize it, average hourly earnings is running at a 7% clip, which is consistent with the other two major measures of wage growth. Fixed Income - What the Curve is Saying. It's clear that the labor market is continuing to accelerate, even with the Fed hiking 4. There are meaningful corrections during any economic cycle. Clearbridge anatomy of a recession pdf. 3 million, which was a drop of around 300, 000 from the previous month. Can you share with us the potential impact—a pivot happening sooner as opposed to later will have on the capital markets? And given the strength of the labour market, I just don't see a recession on the horizon at this very moment. Ok, let's talk about the labor market. So more to come on that front.

Hosted by Michael Barbaro and Sabrina Tavernise. © 2023 Franklin Templeton Language: Hindi. In normal periods, this is a one-to-one ratio, the peak prior to the pandemic was 1. But you saw large declines in areas that were unexpected, like shelter inflation.

Clearbridge Anatomy Of A Recession Dashboard

Over 90% of mortgages are fixed. In fact, if you look at every bear market since 1940, once you hit that bear market territory, which is -20% in the S&P 500 [Index], initially the markets go down further, another 15. Now, what's unique about this is that usually the Fed anticipates job losses and they usually cut as the job market is transitioning from job creation to job loss. So, I think a cooler labor market on the back of lower job openings is that second leg in the stool. Clearbridge anatomy of a recessions. The markets already have priced in a stable amount of inflation over the long term, he said. Jeff Schulze: Well yeah, we were calling for the dreaded R word well before it was fashionable to do so.

The one area, though, however, that's going to be sticky—and [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell and the Fed has mentioned this several times over the last couple of speeches—is services inflation, ex-rent. Why the pendulum has shifted so strongly negative, and is there any bottom in sight? The now-infamous Murdaugh family is at the center of a litany of criminal investigations into fraud, obstruction of justice, the 2021 double homicides of Paul Murdaugh and his mother Maggie, the 2015 murder of young Stephen Smith, the suicide-for-hire plot of family patriarch Alex Murdaugh (who has since been charged with Paul & Maggie's murders) and a vast insurance scheme that preyed on the region's most vulnerable citizens. I recall that with last month's release, there was some deterioration with the overall signal becoming a deeper red. And they had the keys in the last recession to be able to calibrate the proper policy response. 6% between green and the market peak that occurred prior to the recession. Jeff Schulze: The Fed could not be more clear. So I think given the weakness that you've seen in just quality and dividend growers in general here recently, I think it represents a really good opportunity for those to ride out some of this volatility. Talking about it all is Ben Barber, Director of Municipal Bonds with Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, and Josh Greco of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. The Anatomy of a Recession. So corporations may be reluctant to let go of their employees in fear of not being able to get them back should this be a soft landing or a shallow recession. Host: Jeff, your update last quarter predicted we'd drop to a yellow caution signal on the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. This has been also a very big week on the economic front. They are going to have a different reaction function to what they have historically. And with the Fed recently doing another 75-basis point hike in September, and expectations for a fourth 75-basis point hike in November, we think that this deterioration is going to continue as we make our way towards 2023.

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Host: Okay, so the Fed is creating clarity. So, what we're going to be anticipating over the next three to four months is an increase of average hourly earnings as a lot of workers renegotiate their wages for cost-of-living adjustments due to the high inflation that we saw last year. 5% was the best quarter for economic activity in nearly 20 years (since the third quarter of 2003), leaving aside the outlier third quarter of 2020 when the initial reopening occurred. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. Put differently, a little pain today may be better than more pain down the road. Thanks for having me. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. But the other reason why we had expected a counter-trend rally was because of the tailwind from the presidential cycle seasonality. Three ended up in a soft landing. Prior to joining ClearBridge, James was a Sales Director at Goodhart Partners, in Institutional Sales & Client Service at Artisan Partners, and a Product Manager/Product Specialist at Janus Capital International. But if inflation data continues to come down and wage growth cools, the Fed could potentially stop raising rates and pause even though I don't think rate cuts are forthcoming.

So, in thinking about those two phases of a bear market. Consensus expects both headline and core CPI to come in at 0. Jeff Schulze: Well, there has. And the reason why you have such superior market returns during this time frame is as you get through the midterm elections, uncertainty over control of Congress and the policy agenda start to abate.

Listen to our latest "Talking Markets" podcast. And the first is that there were unrealistic expectations of a dovish [US Federal Reserve] Fed pivot. But I think it was the first time that Powell was back to dovish Powell. They are on the line there of a potential move. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. The other component is shelter inflation. The next best thing they have, however, is the Recession Risk Dashboard, which includes 12 economic variables that historically have done a good job of foreshadowing a downturn. Please consult your own financial professional for further information on the availability of products and services in your jurisdiction. Jeff Schulze: Yeah, it's our proprietary recession dashboard. And what the Fed is signalling is that they're going to do more rate hikes this year, and they are projecting over 1.

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