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To the extent that words can help, I hope and plan to bring out articles on FY2023 visa availability and reserved visas implementation, the scope of exemplar approval, denial factors and issues for attention in IPO adjudications, questions about regional center and investor status after December 29, China timing factors, India timing factors, market size potential and constraints, issues and questions in new forms, and changing project success factors in the wake of the new law. Form I-956, I-956F, I-956G, and I-956K. And with regards to the unused visas provisions, there's going to have to be some interpretation and discussion in DOS about how that's going to play out and how it's going to fall up or fall across – they're just kind of unknowns at this point? Telegram group owner left. Or would face that wait, except that it exceeds what many applicants (not to mention their RCs, projects, and investments) can practically bear, predictably leading to many queue-shortening drop-outs/failures. This PDF from October 2018 was the last detailed per-country inventory breakdown published by USCIS.

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I thinkthis interpretation can and ought to be challenged, at at least one lawsuit by DRVC is challenging it, but it's the fact for now. And so I'm back with a few comments on the EB-5 effects, in case the legislation does pass. And now for some unofficial input, pieced together from shared anecdotes and leaks. In January to March 2021 IPO adjudicated 882 I-526, and I thought that was extremely low. The fastest recent I-829 approvals I've heard of were for petitions filed in September 2020 and approved just five months later. Using the equation to solve for receipts in FY2021, I see that "D" masks a negative number: -194 to be exact. So long as the EB-5 quota must be shared between principals and their families, it can sustainably incentivize fewer than 4, 000 investments annually. That is fine in regards to the EB-5 applicants, but if you're an advocate for EB-1 or EB-2 or family fourth or any other preference category, you may be saying, well why can't we have the same benefit where our unused EB-1 numbers are reserved for the next year, etc. The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 is law since March 15, 2022. On the USCIS Processing Times Page, the current I-829 "Estimated Time Range" starting at 35. Most significant of all, note the relatively flat line of I-526 filings from non-backlogged countries since 2015, even during years of peak EB-5 popularity and the $500, 000 threshold. Morocco: Uyghur Activist at Risk of Extradition. As illustrated, processing volume remains not merely suboptimal, but almost vanishingly small.

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Switching midstream from regional center to direct investor status is unfortunately impossible due to indirect job creation and material change. This post summarizes what I've been able to learn about recent I-829 processing. 6 Part G Chapter 5(A)2. After examining the picture, you may want to consult this presentation and my data summary for most recent available estimates of the number of applicants hidden in the EB-5 process clouds (not yet on the Visa Control radar, but important for us because determinative for future visa bulletins). My best guess for your personal adjudication wait is "probably less than eight additional years, " with the "how much less" depending on your filing date, whether you happen to benefit or suffer from USCIS's major deviations from FIFO processing, how soon the new adjudicators hired this year/next year can get up to speed, and whether/when IPO gets approval to significantly increase its authorized staffing level. Removing 32% percent of visas from the general pool does not affect visa allocation under per-country limits in this year, because more than 32% of visas were going to be leftover after per-country allocation anyway. Group Permissions, Undo Delete and More. Creating New Reserved Visa Categories: The new law creates three new EB-5 set-aside categories: 20% rural, 10% DHS-designated high unemployment, and 2% infrastructure. Regular H1B visa slot. I was encouraged to see a few more IPO job announcements this month, and look forward to seeing some results from their work in 2023/24 once they're hired and trained. The guilty plea may moot a legal argument in separate civil charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission as to whether the nine tokens in question are securities. Meanwhile, there are probably at least 1, 000 direct EB-5 investors with I-526 pending at USCIS (considering the total pending inventory of about 13, 000). The next question is whether and when DOS and USCIS "can" issue visas, considering the many other factors delaying and limiting visa issuance besides RC program status.

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Consider how much needs to change going forward to allow for the "timely processing" of under a year that Congress wants to see for EB-5 forms according to the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022. USCIS actually issued 10, 885 of the unusually-high 19, 987 EB-5 visas available in 2022. Waiting for large media downloads to finish ranks very low on the list of "The Most Exciting Things to Do Online". 8 months) that they're almost double the third place finisher for worst processing in all of USCIS forms (Form I-730, at 25. Issuers may be concerned to see Vietnam and India visa availability already used up for the next 7-8 years, according to Department of State estimates, and over 4, 000 visas getting "leftover" every year to old applicants instead of leveraged to incentivize new investment. I have prepared a series of charts with data to help inform the discussion. Q: What is CRP-to-non-CRP? Growing demand from Vietnam and India reached the visa stage by 2018/2019 (but not able to get visas beyond the country limit of around 700, since not near the front of the leftover visa line). EB2-1 485 case remains pending?? | Lawfully. Notes on what did and didn't change in the law, and what's ambiguous. See also the article "Who are 'Promoters' and What Requirements Apply to Them Under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act? " So long as country cap victims are suffering in decade and multi-decade long queues, country cap beneficiaries cannot expect to rest easy in an unchallenged status quo.

The magnitude of the negative impact depends on whether or not Department of State interprets and applies the new law as making all reserve visas practically exclusive to post-March 15, 2022 priority dates, and thus inaccessible to the 80, 000+ pending EB-5 applicants already queued up for visas. Consular processing numbers were also depressed overall compared with FY2019, reflecting on-going struggles with post-COVID backlogs. So even reducing generally-available EB-5 visas to about 6, 800, if set asides have that effect, may not threaten applicants under per-country limits. Case remains pending telegram group links. But I'm more concerned by the assumptions and plans disclosed in discussion of how USCIS arrived at the proposed fees, and the question of how to respond strategically so that the Investor Program Office ends up with resources. The China visa wait time equation is China demand/leftover supply, so backlogged applicants welcome reductions to the new demand that reduces leftover supply. The Processing Time column in the USCIS report indicates the median processing time of cases decided in the reported quarter. Overall, the numbers for October 2020 to December 2020 show low receipts, low productivity, and a faulty record-keeping system. Based on processing trends and factors observable so far, I expect that a significant number of non-Chinese who filed I-526 in 2019-2022 will not have received a visa yet by October 2024 due to slow processing, and thus impacted by country cap removal.

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I don't know what happened to my case?? This table highlights significant detail worth thinking about. The longer I-526 resource problems remain unresolved, the more IPO will face political and industry pressure to adjust processing order, pushing some subset of pending I-526 forward by pushing the other subset of pending I-526 backward. In July 2021, 16 people withdrew their I-526 petitions. When interpreting the Visa Bulletin, be sure to remember that EB-5 is a multi-step process. Many days in December have passed with no I-526 work completed at all, not even RFEs. Collecting and processing EB-5 data has become increasingly difficult and time-consuming. The ultimate condition for immigration success is not satisfied at the beginning of the process, with the initial investment, but at the end of the process, with proven job creation. See also the most recent AIIA newsletter. The charts help to put EB-5 delays in a wider context, and highlight problems that need to be addressed. Case remains pending telegram group plc. But overall, processing is evidently not first-in-first out. With so many moving parts, prediction is difficult.

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This inexcusably low productivity needs urgent management intervention. But certainly, an adjustment to visa allocation would be immensely and broadly beneficial — not least to the economy and job creation. Regardless of its future, EB-5 certainly has a past: tens of thousands of foreign nationals who heeded the EB-5 incentive created by Congress to invest in job-creating U. business through the regional center program, but who do not yet have the offered incentive. Reserved Visa Rules, Possible Future Visa Allocation, and Recommendations" (09/09/2022) on the IIUSA blog. This timeline was created with the Lawfully App. 6/21/2022 Update: DOS has announced that it interprets reserve visas as only available to applicants who file I-526 after March 15, 2022, and unavailable to the backlog. The I-829 inventory reached a record-high 11, 160 pending petitions as of June 30, 2021. Under current law, EB-5 visas get allocated first to the earliest I-526 filing priority dates from each country, up to a country cap limit of about 700 visas per country. Or maybe IPO will eventually respond to changes by moving staff over to I-829 adjudications, in which case I-829 rather than direct EB-5 may benefit from the RC program lapse/expiration. Quoted from minute 58] Joseph Barnett: Can I try to paraphrase what you mentioned before, Charlie, and let me know if I'm getting this right here. The story is particularly sad for applicants from China, who could have theoretically gotten up to 15, 000 leftover EB-5 visas this year (about 20, 000 quota total minus about 5, 000 visas required to satisfy rest-of-world demand at the National Visa Center). There's a strong principle to keep the visa queue in order and avoid date progression that has to be corrected later with date retrogression. Mandamus litigation for I-829 has succeeded in some cases. I made a number of additional charts of data that bear on this question, including I-485 processing trends, I-485 backlogs, consular processing trends, and appointment interview trends.

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What needs to happen to minimize EB-5 visa loss this year? His future experience at Gate 3 will not be determined by gate announcements at the time he walks in the airport door, but by gate announcements when he's finally at the gate. USCIS is extending this deadline until we publish guidance that clarifies the requirements of these forms. This article is provided for informational purposes only. IPO is still on track to deliver over-six-year processing times for I-526 and I-829, still chaotic in the date range of petitions being processed, and still denying a large percentage of I-526. You're welcome to download and play with this and apply your own assumptions. Look at the numbers, and think what will need to change to make that possible. Update: BOS InvestorVoice makes a good point in the comments: USCIS struggled in 2020 to issue I-829 receipt notices, with mutliple I-829 applicants reporting severe delays just to get the notice.

When the regional center program expires, then the 80, 000+ regional center investors and applicants who do not yet have conditional permanent residence status lose eligibility for an EB-5 green card. Sarah Kendall attributed part of the huge IPO productivity drop in 2019 to "temporary assignment of IPO staff to other agency priorities" — i. staff sent outside to work on non-EB-5 cases. I will now share some recent I-526 information from a source that I cannot name but believe to be solid. If you want a good cry and to lose some hair, read the 132, 341 words that explain the budgeting methodology and assumptions. The Investor Program Office and EB-5 processing have not shown improvements yet. Isn't this just beautiful? He spent decades doing everything he could as an individual toward the Herculean task of making U. immigration as fair, functional, and understandable as possible. The government has not yet reacted publicly (that I can find) to the court decision on June 22 vacating the EB-5 Modernization Regulation. Dividing "Pending at period end" by "Total completed" for each form, we can derive a processing time estimate that will apply to a petition at the end of each queue if USCIS continues the same productivity it achieved in Q3. I have noted no IPO adjudicator job announcements yet this year at (only five openings for management staff) — UPDATE: but a reader informs me that there was an IPO adjudicator job announcement that closed recently.

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