Five Letter Word Ending In R U E L: Case Remains Pending Telegram Group
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Because demand cannot vary unpredictably, any inventory pile-ups can only be blamed on IPO inefficiency and poor planning. As of last official report (FY2021 Q3), IPO had 11, 160 pending I-829 as of June 30, 2021, and I-829 productivity was 448 decisions in three months, or average 150 decisions/month. And that's despite having (or at least, paying) more employees in 2022 than in 2017/2018. EB2-1 485 case remains pending?? | Lawfully. See slide 9 of "Part 1: A discussion with Charles Oppenheim" (November 19, 2020) 2020 IIUSA Virtual Forum [vi] The Conditional Permanent Residence Stage is defined as two years from the date that the green card was granted. But, all other factors being equal, reserved visas in themselves (if genuinely reserved) certainly have a dreadful impact on the wait time equation for backlogged Chinese applicants. And according to Department of State interpretation, all EB-5 applicants with pre-March 2022 priority dates can only now qualify for a visa in the new 68% unreserved category, regardless of whether they invested in a TEA that matches new definitions.
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Why are people whose EB-5 investment was made and spent many years ago still a factor in today's immigration policy discussion? The Department of State has finished publishing its Report of the Visa Office 2022. I copy below a table of unofficial data from my leaker at IPO. The Processing Time column in the USCIS report indicates the median processing time of cases decided in the reported quarter. We're partway there, and with so much scope for improvement going forward. Their feedback will naturally reflect their interests and perspective as regional centers who do choose to file I-956 to raise new capital going forward. Feedback will be accepted until January 26, 2023. I have also created a new Processing Data page to house trend charts. Most important, we need to pour advocacy dollars and energy into getting any possible backlog relief for the oldest EB-5 applicants, who need it now more desperately than ever. Case remains Pending | Lawfully. Each year, the oldest applicants received whatever was leftover of the EB-5 limit after DOS satisfied rest-of-world demand within per-country limits. USCIS actually issued 10, 885 of the unusually-high 19, 987 EB-5 visas available in 2022. So long as the EB-5 quota must be shared between principals and their families, it can sustainably incentivize fewer than 4, 000 investments annually.
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Everyone from prospective investors to DHS leadership to Congressional representatives should care if the EB-5 process is grinding to a halt because USCIS is stalling Step 1. I hope that 2023 will bring policy clarifications and processing improvements to help resolve such questions, which should not be open. Not sure how USCIS gets to the number 266 – possibly again due to the confusion exhibited in the I-526 report about when months begin and end. Data on EB-5 form processing has disappointed my hopes so far. Trend charts also show I-485 processing issues that predate the regional center program expiration, and even the pandemic. When I-829 receipts fall, I worry that some disaster befell the cohort of EB-5 investors who entered the U. Former Coinbase product manager pleads guilty to criminal charges in landmark case. In practice, if supply relief doesn't bring down wait times, demand failure inevitably will. The data supports a reasonable hypothesis: that the longer an I-526 stays unadjudicated, the more likely it is to end in denial or withdrawal. Or even restrict members from sending messages altogether – let the admins chat amongst themselves while everybody else witnesses their wisdom in silent awe.
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The expert lawyers do not agree on the probability that USCIS will go on to approve I-526 filed at the lower investment level, or how and how soon and for whom the rules may change back again. Petition approval does not lock in access to a visa. I] USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6 Part G Chapter 1(A): "The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) makes visas available to qualified immigrant investors who will contribute to the economic growth of the United States by investing in U. businesses and creating jobs for U. workers. Case remains pending telegram group website. As a side note, see minute 36 of the Chat with Charlie linked above for a brief comment in response to my question about why, despite "current" Chart B for I5 and R5, NVC has been emailing regional center applicants that it "will not act on any new or pending EB-5 visa petitions as described above until further notice. Visas issued in 2022 reduced those queues by 6, 125 visas to China, 1, 381 visas to India, and 815 visas to Vietnam. USCIS must address I-526 resources to avoid resorting to processing inequalities and broad-based damage. The current dire EB-5 processing situation provides yet more incentive and pressure for industry and Congress to get EB-5 legislation as soon as possible.
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If anyone would like to leak reasons to me, please reach out on email, phone, or Telegram. That's the closest analogy I can think of to the 32% reserved visa provision in the new law (and particularly the 20% rural reserve, given very few past rural investments). UPDATE: The IIUSA blog has published my detailed analysis of the formula and inputs behind the fee rule, with thoughts on how to respond. What are these people doing, especially now during the regional center program lapse when USCIS decided that "we will not act on any pending petition or application of these form types that is dependent on the lapsed statutory authority. " In the zero-sum visa game, newly-reserving visas for some means newly-restricting visa availability for others. Telegram group owner left. Too many EB-5 visas have been lost already. The China backlog must particularly fight to lose as few visa numbers as possible, which means keeping their access to reserve visas if possible. Of the 9, 102 EB-5 visas that didn't get issued in FY2022, 6, 396 couldn't have been issued because segregated in newly-created set-aside categories. Reserved Visa Rules, Possible Future Visa Allocation, and Recommendations" (09/09/2022) on the IIUSA blog. But what if USCIS decides to terminate all regional centers who do not choose to raise new EB-5 funds? However, 600 is still only 10% of total I-829 filed in 2019 and 2020, so 90% of pending I-829 with those recent dates are also still waiting for decisions. Also FYI, here are the comments I submitted to USCIS, focused on my top concerns of transparency, and the status of pre-RIA regional centers and investors.
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He spent decades doing everything he could as an individual toward the Herculean task of making U. immigration as fair, functional, and understandable as possible. Comparing FY2022 Q1 volumes with the average for 2017-2018, IPO processed 2 times fewer I-829 and 54 times fewer I-526. I'm not saying where I got the detail reported in the following charts, but I judge that the detail is accurate and close to complete. We decided to spice this process up a bit by improving our animation algorithms and adding an ultra-light thumbnail to each photo and video: From now on, every photo you receive will start its life as an obscure blur instead of an empty square. This shapes my expectations for improvement EB-5 processing – a small part of the total immigration system. I assume that I-526 filings in 2022 didn't grow the queues very much, unless it turns out that most of the 829 receipts last year came from Indians). Case remains pending telegram group plc. So in real life, changing the denominator of a wait time equation – as reserved visas does for China – will change the numerator as well. Many backlogged applicants in fact invested in high-unemployment areas, and just need to be re-coded and recognized as such – something for investor associations to fight for. With country caps, on the other hand, new petitioners from some countries other than China and India might be advised to invest outside a TEA to qualify for an unreserved visa, since 7% of 68% is a lot more visas available than 7% of 20%, 7% of 10%, or 7% of 2%. The May 2022 Visa Bulletin indicates that visas now "may" be allocated to regional center EB-5 applicants – thus eliminating one constraint from 2021. And on-going terrible performance by the Investor Program Office.
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I-485 SUMMARY DATA AS OF 2023-03-13. This puts us back to option one: do whatever it takes to get the regional center program reauthorized as soon as possible. The numbers alone tell a shocking story, and I could offer further spicy details about what's been going on specifically with processing, lack of industry engagement, and some evidence of conspiracy. And if you followed that logic, then the only numbers that ultimately remained unused after the fall-up provision would then fall across for the next year's set-aside limit.
Unfortunately my previous position did not require me to know the detailed information which is included on these petitions, so I can't really say how easy it's going to be for them to make that distinction between the rural and high unemployment applicants for these set asides. That popularity was wonderful for the U. economy, which got tens of billions of dollars in investment and hundreds of thousands of jobs, but it was not good for immigration. A webinar recording is now available on Youtube, and I've transcribed below a few of Charlie's comments on the reserved visas provision in the new law. While USCIS does not report data specific to EB-5 I-485, I always check the category-wide I-485 report and look at performance numbers for the California Service Center, where most (all? ) At that time, Oppenheim estimated the EB-5 backlog (including applicants already registered at NVC and potential future applicants associated with I-526 pending at USCIS) at 57, 253 visa applicants for China, 7, 418 for India, 3, 954 for Vietnam, and 18, 054 for other countries (see Slide 10). For whose sake should Congress act on EB-5 legislation? Consider applying to participate! This could be a back door to recapturing at least FY2022's large number of unused EB-5 visas, which would be very valuable. Processing volume in this quarter remained low – even worse than in the last quarter under the Trump administration.
But even with optimal interpretation, the China backlog is poised to lose access to at least 2, 000 visas a year. USCIS data reports show the total size of the EB-5 form workload, and the rate at which USCIS is working on it. At that volume, it will take IPO about eight years to process the already-pending inventory of over 12, 000 I-526 and over 11, 000 I-829. Biometric and Beyond.
If the law changes midstream, too bad. The Investor Program Office and EB-5 processing have not shown improvements yet. The fee rule process is critical, because it determines over 90 percent of USCIS funding and whether or not USCIS has "the resources it needs to provide adequate service. " EB-5 demand from China was relatively early, thus now at the head of the line for any visas leftover after organically low EB-5 demand from other countries. We don't know how many I-526 were filed in Q1, because the report gives a letter "D" in place of I-526 receipts. I am not currently promoting my I-526 timing estimate service, due to limited recent information. We'd feared that one consequence of regional center program lapse on June 30 could be IPO decision to move resources away from I-526 adjudication, and that appears to be happening, at least so far. The reserve categories around which they invested have suddenly disappeared.
The wait times for Vietnam and India were estimated at 7-8 years. This article is provided for informational purposes only. We will use this feedback to inform future policy changes and operational improvements. Among those motivated to care about immigration outcomes, how many will slog through articles like this instead of clinging to hopeful guesses? A two-year processing time is still too long, but would be far closer to adequate than the six years promised by current performance.
Impact of Reserved Categories: If the reserved visas are genuinely reserved for post-enactment I-526, not available to the pending backlog, who wins? I transcribe comments on the ambiguities from Charles Oppenheim, recently retired from Department of State, at a March 22 webinar with Wolfsdorf Law. Medical Interfiling. The Visa Bulletin adds a warning note just in case the number of direct EB-5 Chinese applicants proves larger than Department of State expects: "if China-mainland born number use were to materialize at a level which could potentially jeopardize visa availability under the overall FY-2022 Employment-based Fifth preference annual limit it would then be necessary to once again impose a final action date. Country caps protect visa availability for applicants from low-demand countries, while constraining applicants from high-demand countries into enormous backlogs. The future wait times associated with that scary queue depend on (1) how many petitioners/applicants in the queue will ultimately give up/lose eligibility before they can clam a visa (likely a large number given the untenable wait times looming for Chinese and Indians near the end of the queue), and (2) how many EB-5 visas will be issued per year from now on, with the base case being 9, 940 EB-5 visas * 68% unreserved * 7% country cap = up to 473 to applicants of each country. The backlog chart reiterates how much good would result if Congress clarified that the @10, 000 EB-5 visa quota applies specifically to EB-5 investors (principal applicants). Government should want to avoid bait-and-switch. IPO management might proudly point out that they have improved since the new EB-5 law, approving almost 100 I-526 in May 2022, compared with only 9 in February 2022. But I'm more concerned by the assumptions and plans disclosed in discussion of how USCIS arrived at the proposed fees, and the question of how to respond strategically so that the Investor Program Office ends up with resources.